In Progress
How Academic Match Shapes the Returns to For-Profit and Public Colleges
Presented at SOLE ‘26
For-Profit Colleges and the Sources of Undermatching
with Serena Goldberg & Pamela Torola
Working Papers
Can Public Colleges Cater to For-Profit Students?
Presented at APPAM ‘24, SOLE Joint World Conference ‘25, AEFP ‘26
Abstract: For-profit colleges yield lower returns than public alternatives but may attract students who would otherwise forgo higher education. I estimate for-profit students’ second choices from their revealed preferences following abrupt for-profit chain closures. Between 30-50% of for-profit students substitute to public colleges, yet those who do downshift to part-time enrollment, slowing their degree progression. Public diversion is significantly larger where for-profit and public colleges specialize in similar programs. New public programs introduced under a large community-college grant program erode for-profit enrollment only when their fields of study overlap, reinforcing the evidence that limited substitution stems from for-profits’ distinctive vocational programs.
Where Does the Tide Roll? The Causes and Consequences of Out-of-State Enrollment at Public Flagships
with Crossan Cooper | Presented at AEFP ‘26 | Draft available upon request
Abstract: Between 2000 and 2021, the average share of out-of-state enrollment among first-year students at US public flagship universities rose by 41%. Using a combination of novel data sources at institution, municipality, and individual levels, we present evidence that this rise in non-resident enrollment is driven by university recruitment efforts and concentrated among out-of-state students from households in high-income locations. After linking twenty years of commencement records from a large public flagship to graduate work histories, we exploit plausibly exogenous across-cohort variation in state-level enrollment shares to show that each 1 percentage point increase in out-of-state enrollment increases in-state students’ out-migration by 0.24-0.28 percentage points. Despite this spillover effect on student migration, we find that out-of-state students more than pay for themselves through higher tuition revenues and an increased probability of residing in the college-going state: our preferred estimate is that a marginal out-of-state student delivers a lifetime budget surplus of more than $36k.
Older Publications
Quality Regulation Creates and Reallocates Trade
with Lucas Zavala, Ana Fernandes, Tristan Reed, & Jose-Daniel Reyes
Employment Effects of Unemployment Insurance Generosity During the Pandemic
July 2020, with Joseph Altonji, Zara Contractor, Lucas Finamor, Ilse Lindenlaub, Costas Meghir, Cormac O’Dea, Dana Scott, Liana Wang, and Ebonya Washington
The Effects of the Coronavirus on Hours of Work in Small Businesses
July 2020, with Joseph Altonji, Zara Contractor, Lucas Finamor, Ilse Lindenlaub, Costas Meghir, Cormac O’Dea, Dana Scott, Liana Wang, and Ebonya Washington