In Progress
Academic Match and the Returns to For-Profit and Public Colleges
Presented at SOLE ‘26
Returns to For-Profit Graduate Education
with Joseph Altonji & Zhengren Zhu
College Accountability under Student Selection
Working Papers
Can Public Colleges Cater to For-Profit Students?
Presented at APPAM ‘24, SOLE Joint World Conference ‘25, AEFP ‘26
Abstract: Many students choose expensive for-profit colleges for vocational training even though affordable public options are widely available. Such choices are often attributed to information frictions, but this view presumes public options provide close substitutes for for-profit programs. I test this premise using a revealed-preference analysis of students’ choices after abrupt for-profit chain closures. About 30–50 percent of displaced students substitute to public colleges, but those who do often shift to part-time enrollment, slowing their degree progression. Diversion to the public sector is larger where for-profit and public colleges specialize in similar programs. New public programs introduced under a large community-college grant program erode for-profit enrollment only in overlapping fields of study, reinforcing the evidence that limited substitution stems from for-profits’ distinctive vocational programs.
Where Does the Tide Roll? The Causes and Consequences of Out-of-State Enrollment at Public Universities
with Crossan Cooper | Presented at AEFP ‘26 | Draft available upon request
Abstract: Public flagship universities increasingly use nonresident tuition revenues to offset declining state funding. Nationally, we find that public flagships facing lower state support enroll relatively more high-income nonresidents. We then link two decades of University of Alabama (UA) commencement records to admissions office recruiting visits and individual employment histories. These data allow us to document how universities pursue this revenue margin and to measure downstream effects on graduates and state budgets. We show UA boosts high-income out-of-state demand through targeted recruitment visits: in a differences-in-differences design, new visits generate 8–10 percent more future UA graduates. We then trace how nonresident enrollment redirects graduates across state labor markets. Using variation in the state-of-origin composition of UA cohorts and a shift-share instrument constructed from origin states’ non-UA out-of-state enrollment rates, we estimate that every 100 out-of-state students cause 9–15 additional in-state students to leave the state after college. These patterns are consistent with peer effects operating through expanded consideration sets and referral networks. The resulting fiscal losses to Alabama are outweighed by tax revenues from out-of-state stayers and by nonresident tuition margins. Altogether, the median out-of-state student generates more than \$40,000 in lifetime state budget surplus. Finally, the out-of-state expansion appears to support in-state degree production. A budget accounting exercise shows that UA’s out-of-state enrollment margins are sufficient to cross-subsidize more than half of the in-state cohort, who receive an average annual subsidy of \$13,000 per student.
Older Publications
Quality Regulation Creates and Reallocates Trade
with Lucas Zavala, Ana Fernandes, Tristan Reed, & Jose-Daniel Reyes
Employment Effects of Unemployment Insurance Generosity During the Pandemic
July 2020, with Joseph Altonji, Zara Contractor, Lucas Finamor, Ilse Lindenlaub, Costas Meghir, Cormac O’Dea, Dana Scott, Liana Wang, and Ebonya Washington
The Effects of the Coronavirus on Hours of Work in Small Businesses
July 2020, with Joseph Altonji, Zara Contractor, Lucas Finamor, Ilse Lindenlaub, Costas Meghir, Cormac O’Dea, Dana Scott, Liana Wang, and Ebonya Washington